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https://ukti.blog.gov.uk/2009/10/14/uncertainty-is-invevitable-worrying-is-optional/

Uncertainty is invevitable. Worrying is optional.

Posted by: , Posted on: - Categories: Export

I have metal in both my ankles, the legacy of a misspent youth, and it set off the security scanner at Chicago International Airport. It’s not my first time, so I deliberately travel without pockets, flaunt my ankles to anyone who asks and smile a lot.

There’s been an addition to the decor since my last US trip, the introduction of the Perspex holding cage for potential suspects to wait for a second security officer. You know that moment of hesitation between instruction and compliance? I stared into the giant plastic box and felt like the mouse being invited to look at the cheese.

As it transpired, my security guard was a jovial Chicagoan with a magic wand and a son-in-law from Lincoln. After a thorough pat down and a chat about the fens, I flew to Palm Beach wondering if I could give David Blaine a run for his money.

This incident got me thinking about actual and perceived risk.

I have heard that one of the top reasons for SME reluctance to export is fear of the unknown, which is really just a personal and professional risk assessment. To be honest, for me the unknown has always been an exciting place to venture into.

Like so many UK entrepreneurs, over the past year I’ve attended local network meetings on how to ride out the economic recession. It's usually good sound stuff with plenty of conventional wisdom on tightening the belt, rationalizing structures, re-visiting financing and so forth... 

Our approach has been less conventional. If the UK economy is constricting, don’t constrict with it, get bigger, go global. Is this really any more risk than constricting your business activities? This perspective is usually greeted with a nod and a wink from those already in the export club or panic stricken faces – it’s all a question of risk perception.

So how much risk is there really? We have UKTI specialists, the SAS of business support, hand holding us though each export step. Through the Passport to Export scheme, we’ve seen measurable internal improvements in our whole business. We have access to market analysis, research, overseas contacts and financial support. In fact, our decision to export has strengthened our business, improved our domestic market position and given the directors a spring in their step.

Of course risk has to be managed. We mapped potential opportunities against our core competencies and settled on e-learning as a growth area around the world. We then looked at potential markets not by sector, but though an innovation lens. Where are the agents of change that create a market for our products and services?

The biggest agents of change are governments, through stimulation or regulation, and the biggest news stories of the year are the global fiscal stimulus packages. This doesn’t mean we necessarily want to become government contractors, it means that wherever there is a financial stimulus injection, it creates a gravity-well that businesses and people flock to – that’s a market opportunity.

Market segmentation and developing channels by tracking innovation, rather than conventional sector or geographical boxes, is taught at the Kellogg school as a cutting edge approach for global companies. Here are their four top tips for implementation:

• Think big, start small, scale fast
 Rapid, dirty and cheap pilots are the key to speed

• Break down projects into manageable chunks
 No project at Cisco is more than 90 days in duration

• Avoid “percentage people”
 Dedicated personnel are the only way to get focus and speed in action

• Make executives accountable for progress.
 Cisco insists on regular innovation review meetings with senior staff.

Of course, getting government departments and support agencies to evolve from the artifice of sector boundaries to a cross-cutting innovation theme is a different challenge.  I think it probably starts with managing risk on the basis of cost of failure and not probability of failure. Within the twists and turns of the global economy, one thing is guaranteed - uncertainty is inevitable, worrying is optional…

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